Model probabilities Emiliana Arango 52.0% · Venus Williams 48.0% Why Emiliana Arango is favoured Emiliana Arango's Elo (1455) is +127 over Venus Williams (1328); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 77.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.