Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Iga Swiatek
To win
+$9.80
Total payout
$29.80
Joint prob
88.4%
Combined odds
1.49
Fair odds
1.13
Edge
+31.7%
Expected value: +$6.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 88.4% · fair market: 65.4% · edge: +35.1%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 11.6% · Iga Swiatek 88.4% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1921) is +360 over Iva Jović (1561); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 7.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 11.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 88.4% vs market 65.4% (edge +35.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.