Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
To win
+$6.80
Total payout
$26.80
Joint prob
74.5%
Combined odds
1.34
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
-0.1%
Expected value: $-0.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.5% · fair market: 72.3% · edge: +3.1%
Model probabilities Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 74.5% · Moise Kouame 25.5% Calibration Raw model: 79.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 74.5% vs market 72.3% (edge +3.1%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.