Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.1% · fair market: 22.7% · edge: -7.0%
Model probabilities Emma Navarro 21.1% · Karolina Muchova 78.9% Why Karolina Muchova is favoured Karolina Muchova's Elo (1883) is +286 over Emma Navarro (1597); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 10.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.