Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
To win
+$31.00
Total payout
$51.00
Joint prob
53.2%
Combined odds
2.55
Fair odds
1.88
Edge
+35.5%
Expected value: +$7.11 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.11 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.2% · fair market: 38.0% · edge: +40.0%
Model probabilities Arthur Rinderknech 46.8% · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 53.2% Why Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favoured Arthur Rinderknech's Elo (1615) is +70 over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1545); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 68.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.2% vs market 38.0% (edge +40.0%, suggested Kelly +22.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.