Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kamilla Rakhimova
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
78.2%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+2.4%
Expected value: +$0.48 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.48 on a $20 stake.
Market: Coolbet ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.2% · fair market: 74.1% · edge: +5.5%
Model probabilities Kamilla Rakhimova 78.2% · Venus Williams 21.8% Why Kamilla Rakhimova is favoured Kamilla Rakhimova's Elo (1473) is +135 over Venus Williams (1338); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 78.2% vs market 74.1% (edge +5.5%, suggested Kelly +7.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.