Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mattia Bellucci
To win
+$19.80
Total payout
$39.80
Joint prob
50.9%
Combined odds
1.99
Fair odds
1.96
Edge
+1.3%
Expected value: +$0.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.9% · fair market: 48.8% · edge: +4.2%
Model probabilities Sebastian Baez 49.1% · Mattia Bellucci 50.9% Why Mattia Bellucci is favoured Elo essentially level (1478 vs 1481) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 50.9% vs market 48.8% (edge +4.2%, suggested Kelly +1.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.