Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yulia Putintseva
To win
+$78.40
Total payout
$98.40
Joint prob
21.9%
Combined odds
4.92
Fair odds
4.57
Edge
+7.7%
Expected value: +$1.54 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.54 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.9% · fair market: 19.7% · edge: +10.9%
Model probabilities Yulia Putintseva 21.9% · Belinda Bencic 78.1% Why Belinda Bencic is favoured Belinda Bencic's Elo (1797) is +268 over Yulia Putintseva (1529); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 11.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 21.9% vs market 19.7% (edge +10.9%, suggested Kelly +2.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.