Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Berrettini
To win
+$10.80
Total payout
$30.80
Joint prob
84.3%
Combined odds
1.54
Fair odds
1.19
Edge
+29.8%
Expected value: +$5.96 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.96 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 84.3% · fair market: 63.2% · edge: +33.5%
Model probabilities Matteo Berrettini 84.3% · Mariano Navone 15.7% Why Matteo Berrettini is favoured Matteo Berrettini's Elo (1656) is +203 over Mariano Navone (1454); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 84.3% vs market 63.2% (edge +33.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.