Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Shi Han
To win
+$163.60
Total payout
$183.60
Joint prob
20.1%
Combined odds
9.18
Fair odds
4.97
Edge
+84.9%
Expected value: +$16.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$16.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 20.1% · fair market: 10.5% · edge: +91.3%
Model probabilities Qinwen Zheng 79.9% · Shi Han 20.1% Calibration Raw model: 87.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 79.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 20.1% vs market 10.5% (edge +91.3%, suggested Kelly +10.4% of bankroll).