Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Panna Udvardy
To win
+$28.40
Total payout
$48.40
Joint prob
50.8%
Combined odds
2.42
Fair odds
1.97
Edge
+22.9%
Expected value: +$4.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.57 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.8% · fair market: 40.0% · edge: +27.1%
Model probabilities Cristina Bucsa 49.2% · Panna Udvardy 50.8% Why Panna Udvardy is favoured Cristina Bucsa's Elo (1542) is +94 over Panna Udvardy (1448); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.8% vs market 40.0% (edge +27.1%, suggested Kelly +16.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.