Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
To win
+$290.20
Total payout
$310.20
Joint prob
13.5%
Combined odds
15.51
Fair odds
7.42
Edge
+108.9%
Expected value: +$21.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$21.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.5% · fair market: 6.2% · edge: +116.3%
Model probabilities Camilo Ugo Carabelli 13.5% · Felix Auger-Aliassime 86.5% Why Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured Felix Auger-Aliassime's Elo (1789) is +321 over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1468); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 8.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 13.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 13.5% vs market 6.2% (edge +116.3%, suggested Kelly +7.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.