Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.9% · fair market: 27.1% · edge: -4.6%
Model probabilities Maria Timofeeva 25.9% · Elise Mertens 74.1% Why Elise Mertens is favoured Elise Mertens's Elo (1651) is +190 over Maria Timofeeva (1461); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 16.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.