Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Amanda Anisimova
To win
+$10.20
Total payout
$30.20
Joint prob
86.0%
Combined odds
1.51
Fair odds
1.16
Edge
+29.8%
Expected value: +$5.96 on a $20 stake.
Amanda Anisimova advanced to the third round of the WTA Canadian Open via a walkover due to her opponent's viral illness, meaning she has not had recent match play. Nikola Bartunkova has played and won two matches in the tournament, indicating good form. There are no integrity flags or confirmed key absences for either player in the last 14 days. However, there are recent reports of 'explosive allegations' against Anisimova's ex-coach following a major team change, which could be a low-level morale factor.
Reports emerged of 'explosive allegations' against Amanda Anisimova's ex-coach following a major team change.
Nikola Bartunkova is expected to play, having won her first two matches in the tournament, defeating Bianca Andreescu and Clara Tauson.
Amanda Anisimova is expected to play, having received a walkover in her previous round due to Lanlana Tararudee's viral illness, which means she has not had recent match play in the tournament.
Expected value: +$5.96 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 86.0% · fair market: 64.6% · edge: +33.0%
Model probabilities Nikola Bartunkova 14.0% · Amanda Anisimova 86.0% Why Amanda Anisimova is favoured Amanda Anisimova's Elo (1818) is +226 over Nikola Bartunkova (1592); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 86.0% vs market 64.6% (edge +33.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.