Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zizou Bergs
To win
+$7.40
Total payout
$27.40
Joint prob
74.3%
Combined odds
1.37
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+1.8%
Expected value: +$0.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.3% · fair market: 70.9% · edge: +4.9%
Model probabilities Ignacio Buse 25.7% · Zizou Bergs 74.3% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1605) is +143 over Ignacio Buse (1462); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 20.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.3% vs market 70.9% (edge +4.9%, suggested Kelly +5.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.