Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Darja Semenistaja
To win
+$69.00
Total payout
$89.00
Joint prob
37.1%
Combined odds
4.45
Fair odds
2.69
Edge
+65.3%
Expected value: +$13.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.1% · fair market: 21.8% · edge: +70.4%
Model probabilities Anastasia Potapova 62.9% · Darja Semenistaja 37.1% Why Anastasia Potapova is favoured Anastasia Potapova's Elo (1619) is +172 over Darja Semenistaja (1447); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.1% vs market 21.8% (edge +70.4%, suggested Kelly +18.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.