Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Vit Kopriva
To win
+$39.20
Total payout
$59.20
Joint prob
45.2%
Combined odds
2.96
Fair odds
2.21
Edge
+33.9%
Expected value: +$6.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.2% · fair market: 32.4% · edge: +39.5%
Model probabilities Rinky Hijikata 54.8% · Vit Kopriva 45.2% Why Rinky Hijikata is favoured Rinky Hijikata's Elo (1509) is +21 over Vit Kopriva (1488); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 56.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.2% vs market 32.4% (edge +39.5%, suggested Kelly +17.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.