Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Talia Gibson
To win
+$112.80
Total payout
$132.80
Joint prob
28.4%
Combined odds
6.64
Fair odds
3.52
Edge
+88.6%
Expected value: +$17.72 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.72 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.4% · fair market: 14.5% · edge: +95.3%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 71.6% · Talia Gibson 28.4% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2039) is +450 over Talia Gibson (1589); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 95.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 71.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 28.4% vs market 14.5% (edge +95.3%, suggested Kelly +15.7% of bankroll).