Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francesco Passaro
To win
+$23.00
Total payout
$43.00
Joint prob
46.7%
Combined odds
2.15
Fair odds
2.14
Edge
+0.5%
Expected value: +$0.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.7% · fair market: 45.3% · edge: +3.2%
Model probabilities Jesper De Jong 53.3% · Francesco Passaro 46.7% Why Jesper De Jong is favoured Jesper De Jong's Elo (1493) is +65 over Francesco Passaro (1429); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 67.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.7% vs market 45.3% (edge +3.2%, suggested Kelly +0.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.