Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Wu Yibing
To win
+$15.60
Total payout
$35.60
Joint prob
63.4%
Combined odds
1.78
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+12.8%
Expected value: +$2.56 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.56 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.4% · fair market: 53.9% · edge: +17.6%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 36.6% · Wu Yibing 63.4% Calibration Raw model: 46.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.4% vs market 53.9% (edge +17.6%, suggested Kelly +16.4% of bankroll).