Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Michelsen
To win
+$34.60
Total payout
$54.60
Joint prob
49.5%
Combined odds
2.73
Fair odds
2.02
Edge
+35.0%
Expected value: +$7.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.5% · fair market: 35.8% · edge: +38.3%
Model probabilities Brandon Nakashima 50.5% · Alex Michelsen 49.5% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1699) is +44 over Alex Michelsen (1655); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 49.5% vs market 35.8% (edge +38.3%, suggested Kelly +20.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.