Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lorenzo Sonego
To win
+$25.60
Total payout
$45.60
Joint prob
68.5%
Combined odds
2.28
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+56.2%
Expected value: +$11.23 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.23 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.5% · fair market: 41.2% · edge: +66.1%
Model probabilities Mattia Bellucci 31.5% · Lorenzo Sonego 68.5% Why Lorenzo Sonego is favoured Lorenzo Sonego's Elo (1561) is +92 over Mattia Bellucci (1469); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 68.5% vs market 41.2% (edge +66.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.