▸ Sealed before kickoff2.4h before kickoff2026-08-05 17:03 UTC· result settled — verifiable
53%
Moderate confidence
ratings essentially level · strong sample · confident top pick
How the model did
Final
1 — 2
Matteo Arnaldi won
✕ Model was wrong
Model assigned
28.3%
to matteo arnaldi
Model's top pick
home
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
1.029
Log loss (↓ better)
1.263
Graded Aug 6, 2026 · 04:01
Form & matchup
Fabian Marozsan
Elo 1542
No recent matches on file.
Matteo Arnaldi
Elo 1505
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Fabian Marozsan +36
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Fabian Marozsan
–
Matteo Arnaldi
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Fabian Marozsan
71.7%
Matteo Arnaldi
28.3%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Fabian Marozsan 71.7% · Matteo Arnaldi 28.3%
Why Fabian Marozsan is favoured
Fabian Marozsan's Elo (1599) is +88 over Matteo Arnaldi (1512); high confidence.
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