Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Soonwoo Kwon
To win
+$23.20
Total payout
$43.20
Joint prob
59.0%
Combined odds
2.16
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+27.4%
Expected value: +$5.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.0% · fair market: 44.3% · edge: +33.1%
Model probabilities Quentin Halys 41.0% · Soonwoo Kwon 59.0% Calibration Raw model: 56.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.0% vs market 44.3% (edge +33.1%, suggested Kelly +23.7% of bankroll).