Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diana Shnaider
To win
+$4.80
Total payout
$24.80
Joint prob
80.4%
Combined odds
1.24
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
-0.4%
Expected value: $-0.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.4% · fair market: 73.8% · edge: +8.8%
Model probabilities Janice Tjen 19.6% · Diana Shnaider 80.4% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1696) is +200 over Janice Tjen (1496); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 15.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 80.4% vs market 73.8% (edge +8.8%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.