Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alexandra Eala
To win
+$8.60
Total payout
$28.60
Joint prob
73.1%
Combined odds
1.43
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+4.5%
Expected value: +$0.90 on a $20 stake.
Alexandra Eala is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, which led to her playing with a taped shoulder in her recent Canadian Open (Montreal) match and subsequently withdrawing from the Cincinnati Open. This raises significant doubts about her fitness and ability to compete effectively in the upcoming match against Caty McNally in the Canadian Open (Toronto). Caty McNally, on the other hand, is in strong form, having recently upset Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the same tournament.
Alexandra Eala recently won her first WTA singles title at the Washington Open, which is a significant morale booster.
Alexandra Eala's final at the Washington Open was suspended due to rain and played over two days, leading to a quick turnaround for the Canadian Open and potential fatigue.
Alexandra Eala received a warning from the WTA for speaking out about rules, specifically regarding shot clock violations and electronic line calling, indicating some friction with authorities.
Alexandra Eala's immense popularity has led to sold-out sessions and even menu changes at the Canadian Open, indicating strong fan support.
Caty McNally is expected to be in good form, having recently upset Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the Canadian Open (Toronto) and advancing to the third round.
Alexandra Eala's participation and performance are highly questionable due to a recent shoulder injury. She played her last match in the Canadian Open (Montreal) with a taped shoulder and subsequently withdrew from the Cincinnati Open.
Expected value: +$0.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.1% · fair market: 68.2% · edge: +7.1%
Model probabilities Caty McNally 26.9% · Alexandra Eala 73.1% Why Alexandra Eala is favoured Alexandra Eala's Elo (1680) is +96 over Caty McNally (1584); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 73.1% vs market 68.2% (edge +7.1%, suggested Kelly +10.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.