Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juncheng Shang
To win
+$171.60
Total payout
$191.60
Joint prob
13.8%
Combined odds
9.58
Fair odds
7.25
Edge
+32.1%
Expected value: +$6.42 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.42 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.8% · fair market: 10.1% · edge: +36.1%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 86.2% · Juncheng Shang 13.8% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1890) is +349 over Juncheng Shang (1541); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 92.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 86.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 13.8% vs market 10.1% (edge +36.1%, suggested Kelly +3.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.