Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aryna Sabalenka
To win
+$1.20
Total payout
$21.20
Joint prob
96.3%
Combined odds
1.06
Fair odds
1.04
Edge
+2.1%
Expected value: +$0.42 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.42 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 96.3% · fair market: 91.9% · edge: +4.9%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 96.3% · Shuai Zhang 3.7% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2066) is +489 over Shuai Zhang (1578); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 96.3% vs market 91.9% (edge +4.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.