Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Pablo Carreno Busta
To win
+$35.00
Total payout
$55.00
Joint prob
49.5%
Combined odds
2.75
Fair odds
2.02
Edge
+36.3%
Expected value: +$7.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.25 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.5% · fair market: 35.3% · edge: +40.4%
Andrey Rublev, currently ranked world No. 18, is looking to improve his consistency after a mixed 2025 season. He recently prepared for the Cincinnati Open by playing a practice set against Arthur Fils.
Lineup: Andrey Rublev is confirmed to participate in the Cincinnati Open and will open his campaign against Pablo Carreno Busta after receiving a first-round bye.
Pablo Carreno Busta, ranked 68th, enters the Cincinnati Open with a challenging 2026 main tour record of 9 wins and 12 losses. He has not competed for the past ten days, with his last match being an early exit from the ATP Montreal tournament.
Lineup: Pablo Carreno Busta is confirmed to play in the Cincinnati Open, where he is scheduled to face Andrey Rublev.
“Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta enter Cincinnati Open seeking momentum after recent struggles.”
Model probabilities Andrey Rublev 50.5% · Pablo Carreno Busta 49.5% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1650) is +106 over Pablo Carreno Busta (1544); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 74.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 49.5% vs market 35.3% (edge +40.4%, suggested Kelly +20.7% of bankroll). News context Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta enter Cincinnati Open seeking momentum after recent struggles. Andrey Rublev: Andrey Rublev, currently ranked world No. 18, is looking to improve his consistency after a mixed 2025 season. He recently prepared for the Cincinnati Open by playing a practice set against Arthur Fils. Pablo Carreno Busta: Pablo Carreno Busta, ranked 68th, enters the Cincinnati Open with a challenging 2026 main tour record of 9 wins and 12 losses. He has not competed for the past ten days, with his last match being an early exit from the ATP Montreal tournament.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.