Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.8% · fair market: 66.0% · edge: +2.7%
Model probabilities Alina Korneeva 67.8% · Polina Kudermetova 32.2% Why Alina Korneeva is favoured Alina Korneeva's Elo (1531) is +67 over Polina Kudermetova (1464); high confidence. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.