Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valentin Vacherot
To win
+$28.80
Total payout
$48.80
Joint prob
53.0%
Combined odds
2.44
Fair odds
1.89
Edge
+29.2%
Expected value: +$5.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.0% · fair market: 39.9% · edge: +32.7%
Model probabilities Valentin Vacherot 53.0% · Stefanos Tsitsipas 47.0% Why Valentin Vacherot is favoured Valentin Vacherot's Elo (1656) is +24 over Stefanos Tsitsipas (1632); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 57.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 53.0% vs market 39.9% (edge +32.7%, suggested Kelly +20.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.