Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daria Kasatkina
To win
+$35.80
Total payout
$55.80
Joint prob
40.1%
Combined odds
2.79
Fair odds
2.49
Edge
+12.0%
Expected value: +$2.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 40.1% · fair market: 34.8% · edge: +15.3%
Model probabilities Paula Badosa 59.9% · Daria Kasatkina 40.1% Why Paula Badosa is favoured Paula Badosa's Elo (1626) is +57 over Daria Kasatkina (1569); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 65.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 40.1% vs market 34.8% (edge +15.3%, suggested Kelly +6.7% of bankroll).