▸ Sealed before kickoff5.2h before kickoff2026-08-04 20:32 UTC· result settled — verifiable
47%
Moderate confidence
ratings essentially level · strong sample · leaning but close
How the model did
Final
0 — 2
Yannick Hanfmann won
✕ Model was wrong
Model assigned
42.7%
to yannick hanfmann
Model's top pick
home
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.657
Log loss (↓ better)
0.851
Graded Aug 5, 2026 · 04:03
Form & matchup
Flavio Cobolli
Elo 1633
No recent matches on file.
Yannick Hanfmann
Elo 1593
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Flavio Cobolli +40
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Flavio Cobolli
–
Yannick Hanfmann
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Flavio Cobolli
57.3%
Yannick Hanfmann
42.7%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Flavio Cobolli 57.3% · Yannick Hanfmann 42.7%
Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured
Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1615) is +25 over Yannick Hanfmann (1591); high confidence.
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