Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.1% · fair market: 67.9% · edge: +0.4%
Model probabilities Cameron Norrie 68.1% · Matteo Arnaldi 31.9% Why Cameron Norrie is favoured Cameron Norrie's Elo (1611) is +91 over Matteo Arnaldi (1520); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.