Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marton Fucsovics
To win
+$36.00
Total payout
$56.00
Joint prob
36.6%
Combined odds
2.80
Fair odds
2.73
Edge
+2.6%
Expected value: +$0.51 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.6% · fair market: 34.7% · edge: +5.5%
Model probabilities Marton Fucsovics 36.6% · Terence Atmane 63.4% Why Terence Atmane is favoured Terence Atmane's Elo (1568) is +11 over Marton Fucsovics (1557); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 46.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 36.6% vs market 34.7% (edge +5.5%, suggested Kelly +1.4% of bankroll).