Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sloane Stephens
To win
+$119.80
Total payout
$139.80
Joint prob
25.6%
Combined odds
6.99
Fair odds
3.90
Edge
+79.1%
Expected value: +$15.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$15.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.6% · fair market: 13.9% · edge: +84.2%
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 74.4% · Sloane Stephens 25.6% Why Marta Kostyuk is favoured Marta Kostyuk's Elo (1802) is +364 over Sloane Stephens (1438); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 92.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 25.6% vs market 13.9% (edge +84.2%, suggested Kelly +13.2% of bankroll).