Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Molcan
To win
+$36.20
Total payout
$56.20
Joint prob
45.6%
Combined odds
2.81
Fair odds
2.19
Edge
+28.0%
Expected value: +$5.61 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.61 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.6% · fair market: 34.7% · edge: +31.5%
Model probabilities Alex Molcan 45.6% · Benjamin Bonzi 54.4% Why Benjamin Bonzi is favoured Elo essentially level (1547 vs 1538) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 52.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 45.6% vs market 34.7% (edge +31.5%, suggested Kelly +15.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.