Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Magda Linette
To win
+$60.60
Total payout
$80.60
Joint prob
73.6%
Combined odds
4.03
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+196.7%
Expected value: +$39.33 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$39.33 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.6% · fair market: 24.1% · edge: +205.4%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 26.4% · Magda Linette 73.6% +EV vs market away: model 73.6% vs market 24.1% (edge +205.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.