Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$3.60
Total payout
$23.60
Joint prob
63.7%
Combined odds
1.18
Fair odds
1.57
Edge
-24.8%
Expected value: $-4.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-4.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.7% · fair market: 47.6% · edge: +33.9%
Model probabilities Zizou Bergs 36.3% · Botic van de Zandschulp 63.7% Why Botic van de Zandschulp is favoured Botic van de Zandschulp's Elo (1649) is +56 over Zizou Bergs (1593); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 34.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.7% vs market 47.6% (edge +33.9%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.