Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Wu Yibing
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
67.6%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.48
Edge
+2.8%
Expected value: +$0.56 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.56 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.6% · fair market: 63.0% · edge: +7.3%
Model probabilities Mackenzie McDonald 32.4% · Wu Yibing 67.6% Calibration Raw model: 36.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 67.6% vs market 63.0% (edge +7.3%, suggested Kelly +5.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.