Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Amanda Anisimova
To win
+$5.80
Total payout
$25.80
Joint prob
90.4%
Combined odds
1.29
Fair odds
1.11
Edge
+16.6%
Expected value: +$3.32 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 90.4% · fair market: 51.3% · edge: +76.1%
Model probabilities Lanlana Tararudee 9.6% · Amanda Anisimova 90.4% Why Amanda Anisimova is favoured Amanda Anisimova's Elo (1813) is +305 over Lanlana Tararudee (1509); medium confidence. +EV vs market away: model 90.4% vs market 51.3% (edge +76.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).