Model probabilities Tomas Martin Etcheverry 19.2% · Alex de Minaur 80.8% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1785) is +224 over Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1561); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 14.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.