Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
To win
+$34.00
Total payout
$54.00
Joint prob
40.0%
Combined odds
2.70
Fair odds
2.50
Edge
+8.0%
Expected value: +$1.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 40.0% · fair market: 36.0% · edge: +11.0%
Model probabilities Camilo Ugo Carabelli 40.0% · Jan-Lennard Struff 60.0% Why Jan-Lennard Struff is favoured Jan-Lennard Struff's Elo (1493) is +28 over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1465); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 41.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 40.0% vs market 36.0% (edge +11.0%, suggested Kelly +4.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.