Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 87.7% · fair market: 87.5% · edge: +0.2%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 87.7% · Wu Yibing 12.3% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1878) is +348 over Wu Yibing (1530); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 92.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 87.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.