Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Caty McNally
To win
+$22.80
Total payout
$42.80
Joint prob
52.8%
Combined odds
2.14
Fair odds
1.89
Edge
+13.0%
Expected value: +$2.61 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.61 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.8% · fair market: 45.5% · edge: +16.0%
Model probabilities Emma Navarro 47.2% · Caty McNally 52.8% Why Caty McNally is favoured Emma Navarro's Elo (1582) is +20 over Caty McNally (1562); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 56.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 52.8% vs market 45.5% (edge +16.0%, suggested Kelly +11.4% of bankroll).