Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lorenzo Musetti
To win
+$18.80
Total payout
$38.80
Joint prob
65.8%
Combined odds
1.94
Fair odds
1.52
Edge
+27.6%
Expected value: +$5.51 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.8% · fair market: 50.0% · edge: +31.5%
Model probabilities Lorenzo Musetti 65.8% · Hubert Hurkacz 34.2% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1698) is +76 over Hubert Hurkacz (1622); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 69.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 65.8% vs market 50.0% (edge +31.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.