Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marin Cilic
To win
+$21.80
Total payout
$41.80
Joint prob
65.6%
Combined odds
2.09
Fair odds
1.52
Edge
+37.1%
Expected value: +$7.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.6% · fair market: 46.5% · edge: +40.9%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 34.4% · Marin Cilic 65.6% Why Marin Cilic is favoured Marin Cilic's Elo (1588) is +29 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1559); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 41.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 34.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.6% vs market 46.5% (edge +40.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.