Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Xinyu Gao
To win
+$30.40
Total payout
$50.40
Joint prob
49.3%
Combined odds
2.52
Fair odds
2.03
Edge
+24.3%
Expected value: +$4.86 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.86 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.3% · fair market: 38.5% · edge: +28.0%
Model probabilities Xinyu Gao 49.3% · Panna Udvardy 50.7% Why Panna Udvardy is favoured Elo essentially level (1456 vs 1448) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 52.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 49.3% vs market 38.5% (edge +28.0%, suggested Kelly +16.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.