Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Corentin Moutet
To win
+$59.00
Total payout
$79.00
Joint prob
67.1%
Combined odds
3.95
Fair odds
1.49
Edge
+165.0%
Expected value: +$33.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$33.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.1% · fair market: 24.5% · edge: +174.2%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 32.9% · Corentin Moutet 67.1% Why Corentin Moutet is favoured Corentin Moutet's Elo (1583) is +63 over Rafael Jodar (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 67.1% vs market 24.5% (edge +174.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.