Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anastasia Potapova
To win
+$15.00
Total payout
$35.00
Joint prob
76.3%
Combined odds
1.75
Fair odds
1.31
Edge
+33.4%
Expected value: +$6.69 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.3% · fair market: 56.1% · edge: +35.8%
Model probabilities Elena Gabriela Ruse 23.7% · Anastasia Potapova 76.3% Why Anastasia Potapova is favoured Anastasia Potapova's Elo (1641) is +119 over Elena Gabriela Ruse (1523); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 76.3% vs market 56.1% (edge +35.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.